The Whitehouse's Go-To Modeler Predicts a Difficult Winter

The US Whitehouse relies primarily on IMHE (Institute of Health and Metrics Evaluation, http://www.healthdata.org/) for their projections of the course of CoVID-19.

IMHE models predict a dire winter here in the US.

IHME normally creates three models including:

• Easing: Means relaxation of prevention strategies

• Projection: Means their nominal projection based upon their estimation of likely socialogical behavior, based, in part, upon past socialogical behavior

• Masks: Means mask-use when in proximity to others is 95%

Here are a few figures from the IMHE site.

IHME projections have historically been accurate within about +/- 5% in most cases. in aggregate.

Let's hope they are wrong this time, but they are probably not.