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The Whitehouse's Go-To Modeler Predicts a Difficult Winter

Updated: Oct 17, 2020

The US Whitehouse relies primarily on IMHE (Institute of Health and Metrics Evaluation, http://www.healthdata.org/) for their projections of the course of CoVID-19.


IMHE models predict a dire winter here in the US.


IHME normally creates three models including:

  • Easing: Means relaxation of prevention strategies

  • Projection: Means their nominal projection based upon their estimation of likely socialogical behavior, based, in part, upon past socialogical behavior

  • Masks: Means mask-use when in proximity to others is 95%


Here are a few figures from the IMHE site.


IHME projections have historically been accurate within about +/- 5% in most cases. in aggregate.


Let's hope they are wrong this time, but they are probably not.







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