The Whitehouse's Go-To Modeler Predicts a Difficult Winter
Updated: Oct 17, 2020
The US Whitehouse relies primarily on IMHE (Institute of Health and Metrics Evaluation, http://www.healthdata.org/) for their projections of the course of CoVID-19.
IMHE models predict a dire winter here in the US.
IHME normally creates three models including:
Easing: Means relaxation of prevention strategies
Projection: Means their nominal projection based upon their estimation of likely socialogical behavior, based, in part, upon past socialogical behavior
Masks: Means mask-use when in proximity to others is 95%
Here are a few figures from the IMHE site.
IHME projections have historically been accurate within about +/- 5% in most cases. in aggregate.
Let's hope they are wrong this time, but they are probably not.